NAPC! Week Ten

Not Another Predictions Column! Week Ten

WEEK OF THE UPSETS!

Atlanta 2-6 @ Carolina 4-4

Apparently, the Panthers are playing hot potato at the quarterback position. Any quarterback in for an extended period of time gets hurt and another number gets called out on this roulette wheel. This week it might be undrafted rookie Matt Moore starting in relief of an injured Testaverde and an injured David Carr. Matt Moore has just seven pass attempts on the season, but has proven that he can get the ball down the field and can thread a needle. However, he is about as inexperienced as it gets, and he proved that with an interception last week against Tennessee. Moore, though, averages 11.3 yards on those seven attempts – more than double what David Carr averages per attempt. For comparison, Vinny Testaverde averages 5.4 yards per attempt, the lowest number of his extensive career. David Carr has been ruled out of this week’s game with a concussion, and Vinny Testaverde, who had been practicing just fine this week, did not practice on Friday due to increased pain in his right Achilles’ tendon. Frankly, if he plays, I am not expecting him to last the game. However, Moore has shown some good things in his limited playing time. His receivers have made plays for him that they have not made for any other quarterback aside from Jake Delhomme. Keary Colbert and Drew Carter have both caught deep balls from Moore, who has no problem slinging it up to his receivers and living life on the edge. I can definitely back a guy like that. This week Carolina will be playing against star defensive end John Abraham, perhaps the best defender on the Falcons’ defense. He has made himself into a Panther-killer both last year and this year, totally dominating Panthers’ left tackle Travelle Wharton. In fact, his was the sack that completely aggravated Jake Delhomme’s elbow ligament injury. He so thoroughly dominated Wharton last year that Wharton ended up tearing his ACL in the game, putting him out for the entire season. Wharton still struggled with him in the matchup earlier this season, but I really cannot blame him. I blame the coaching staff, who have to see that Wharton cannot handle Abraham on his own. Numerous times in the first matchup against Atlanta this year, I saw the Panthers attempt to block Abraham with only a running back or a tight end, not even having an offensive lineman on him. If Carolina tries to pull that number again, Abraham will continue to dictate to the Panthers what they can and cannot do on offense. The Panthers’ running game is getting closer to 1000 yards on the season, as DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams have combined for almost 850 yards thus far. Look for them to get over the 1000 yard mark in this game en route to a Carolina victory. One quick note on the Panthers’ return game: It stinks. Guess what? The punt returner I wanted in the draft, Steve Breaston, is averaging 10.5 yards a punt return to lead all NFC rookies.

Green Bay 7-1 @ Minnesota 3-5

Brett Favre is amazing. He has 2406 yards passing on the season and 13 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. His team is 7-1, tied for the best record in the NFC. All of his receivers are making plays – Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. He is even getting some okay production from his running game. Green Bay’s defense has also played well and is assuredly an underrated unit. Know who else is amazing? Rookie running back Adrian Peterson is. The Vikings’ fantastic young stud already has over 1000 yards rushing and two 200+ yard games. He is on pace to smash Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record of 1808 yards with a 2000+ yard season. If Green Bay can contain him (in other words, hold him to under 200 yards and under three touchdowns), they will win. It is that simple. The Vikings’ pass defense is atrocious, and their best corner, Antoine Winfield, is hampered with a hamstring injury. Essentially, it boils down to Brett Favre’s passing attack vs. Adrian Peterson’s legs, vision, speed, and power. While Adrian Peterson is incredible, Brett Favre’s been doing this a lot longer than Peterson has. Brett Favre and the Packers improve to 8-1 this week.

Denver 3-5 @ Kansas City 4-4

I have had a hard time predicting this division this year. The teams in this division have, for the most part, been mediocre. They win a few, then they lose a few. Denver, in particular, has surprised me. I expected them to be better this year, but their defense has unraveled since the release of MLB AL Wilson in the off-season. Their offense has played fairly well, and un-heard of running back Selvin Young has displayed some marvelous running ability. He refuses to go down and keeps churning his legs, trying to find an opening. He averages 5.3 yards per carry on only 42 attempts. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall has displayed some excellent play-making ability this season, with 609 receiving yards on 45 catches. Kansas City has managed to win four games, though I am not quite sure how. Rookie receiver Dwayne Bowe and tight end Tony Gonzalez are carrying that offense, and doing a good job of it. The defense has also been playing well, led in major part by fourth-year defensive end Jared Allen. Somehow or another, Kansas City is leading their division right now, and they will stay on top of it with a victory this week over Denver.

Buffalo 4-4 @ Miami 0-8

I told you Marshawn Lynch would have a good game last week, and he did. He had 153 yards rushing, a rushing touchdown, and a passing touchdown in the Bills’ defeat of the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bills are contesting for a wildcard spot in the playoffs now, and need to keep winning. J.P. Losman is retaining the starting position in Buffalo at QB right now with two consecutive victories under his belt. As is expected when he is playing, receiver Lee Evans had a big day last week with 165 yards receiving. There is not much I can say about Miami. Their defense is all right, but their offense has nothing. Cleo Lemon is starting at QB right now, but the clock is ticking on when rookie John Beck out of BYU gets to see some playing time. With running back Ronnie Brown injured, the Dolphins have lost their leading rusher AND their leading receiver this year. They do not have much of a passing game, and now Jesse Chatman is spear-heading the rushing attack. My heart goes out to the players and the fans of this team – losing is not fun, and to be hearing whispers of a possible 0-16 season must be about as down-heartening as one can imagine. That said, I am not feeling misty-eyed enough to pick them over Buffalo this week. The Bills take a road victory and climb above .500 on the season.

St. Louis 0-8 @ New Orleans 4-4

Apparently, losing to the Panthers (led by David Carr) was a catalyst to start the Saints winning. This was not an intended by-product of said Carolina victory, and further proof that winning is a drug that should be applied wisely. The Saints’ offense has woken up, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NFL. However, they still do not have a defense, and against teams with a good offense, that will come back to haunt them. Nevertheless, they rode the combination of stellar offense vs. middling defense to a 10-6 record last year. The Rams really just want to win a game, for once. They and Miami are in an ignominious battle for last place overall in the NFL. To win this game, they will need to shut down, or at least limit, New Oreans’ passing attack, and they will need to get some big plays out of their offense. Well, at wide receiver they have one of the best playmakers of all time, Torry “Big Play” Holt. Another thing that would help the offense out would be the return of Steven Jackson circa 2006, not the 2007 model. I am not going with this upset, though. New Orleans, unfortunately, extends its winning streak to five games.

Cleveland 5-3 @ Pittsburgh 6-2

I wanted to make this my upset game, but then I realized that the Browns may be missing two of their starting linemen in this game. Guard Seth McKinney is definitely out, and guard Eric Steinbach may miss the game with a back injury. If Derek Anderson does not have time back in the pocket, it will be hard for him to perform at as high a level as he has been playing at. This will be a game where we really see Anderson’s mettle and what the kid really has. Anderson is second in the NFL in touchdown passes right now (we all know who #1 is). The Browns’ major undoing in this game will not be on the offensive side of the ball, but rather the defensive side. The Browns’ defense is the league’s worst, and the Steelers just rolled over the league’s second-best defense. Picking the Browns, on the road nonetheless, seems to be a move of errant folly this week. For them to win would show the heart of that team and would be a major credit to the coaching staff. Pittsburgh has played well this year, but I still find them a litte inconsistent. They blew the game against Arizona, and they ended up losing to Denver a few weeks ago. Right now, I almost consider the Steelers to be mere pretenders. On the other hand, those games may have just been blips on the radar screen. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger definitely seems to be back in form, with five touchdown passes last week, tying a franchise record. If I am the Browns, I try to hold the ball as long as possible on offense. I expect a valiant effort out of Cleveland, but I believe they will fall just short as the Steelers improve to 7-2.

WEEKLY USPET GAME #1 : Jacksonville 5-3 @ Tennessee 6-2

Tennessee’s defense, a group with a bunch of players most people have never heard of, is currently ranked second in the NFL. They are being led by fearless leader Albert Haynesworth at defensive tackle, who is playing at a level far superior than any of his peers. Haynesworth will be a hot commodity in the free agency period this offseason, as he is in a contract year with Tennesseee. Running back Lendale White managed to scrap out 100 yards rushing against Carolina this past week, but should find the breathing room a little easier to come by against Jacksonville this game as Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcus Stroud serves his four game suspension. The Titans, however, do not have a passing game. Vince Young has struggled with that concept thus far, with only 855 yards passing and three touchdown passes. The Jaguars do have a strong pass defense, though it was not evident against New Orleans last week. Quinn Gray surprised me and played well at QB against New Orleans, though. Somewhat surprisingly, I feel that the Jaguars will show up this week and knock off Tennessee on the road.

Philadelphia 3-5 @ Washington 5-3

Word out of Philadelphia area is that Donovan McNabb is running scared, like a deer caught in the headlights. How long before the Eagles turn to another QB, or how long before McNabb goes down? If McNabb goes down again, rumors have it that will be the end of his tenure in Philadelphia. I have to say that after seeing McNabb extensively in the game against Dallas, it does appear that he is ‘running scared.’ He appears to be tentative in his decision-making. If I were a Philly fan, I would be calling up all the IKEA stores within a 500 mile radius trying to find where the ‘real’ McNabb was being held. On the other side of the field stand the 5-3 Washington Redskins with their physical defense and strong running game. It took them awhile, but they managed to knock off the Jets last week, who gave them a surprisingly hard fight. Washington needs to get their groove back on after being blown out of the water by the Patriots two weeks ago. Leading receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randel El are nursing minor injuries, so look for Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley to receive additional touches this week. With the inconsistent play the Eagles are getting from their linebackers, that should pay off for Washington as they defeat the Eagles.

WEEKLY UPSET GAME #2: Cincinnati 2-6 @ Baltimore 4-4

This should be interesting – a team with no defense (Cincy) vs. a team with no offense (Baltimore). At this moment the Ravens’ pass defense is a little suspect, as some of their starters are a little shaken up. Corner Samari Rolle will miss the game against Cincinnati. Carson Palmer is probably looking forward to this, and one of his favorite targets will be back. Wide receiver Chris Henry, who was serving his eight-game suspension for violating the league’s conduct policy, returns to the lineup this week. Ravens running back Willis McGahee should be able to get the ground game going against Cincinnati, but it appears unlikely that the Ravens will be able to do anything during the air. It should be apparent by now that Steve McNair should retire, but I do not like saying that to anyone. I can respect someone trying to live his dream. After all, people were telling Brett Favre he ought to retire roughly four years ago or so. Those were probably the bookies trying to bet against Green Bay. If Steve McNair has anything left in the tank, he has to start showing it soon, as pretty soon Baltimore will be eliminated from playoff contention. They need to win games against teams like Cincinnati to stay in the hunt, but that does not happen this week. In NAPC!’s second upset game selection this week, Cincinnati wins on the road over Baltimore.

Detroit 6-2 @ Arizona 3-5

Jon Kitna and the Lions just keep on winning. This team has that ‘it’ factor, that ‘moxie’ about it. They find a way to score and they find a way to win. Name me one starter on that defense outside of Shaun Rogers. Tell me who plays corner for them. Tell me who happens to line up at linebacker. No one knows. They are a bunch of no-names and no one considers them to be all that great. Yet, they lead the league in takeaways. I am telling you, straight up, Detroit has ‘it.’ They really do. Aside from Brett Favre and his Packers, there happens to be no other team in the league (outside of the Panthers) that I am rooting for as strongly right now. Detroit makes their own luck, and I am down with that. I look forward to watching them in the playoffs this year to see if that luck transposes into the post-season. As for Arizona, they are fading fast. The offense is being led by Kurt Warner, and if they cannot get a ground attack going, Warner does not appear capable of shouldering the entire team by himself as he could with the Rams. Possible Hall of Fame running back Edgerrin James should find the running room easier against Detroit this week after only managing 15 yards on nine carries against the Buccaneers. It will not be enough. Lions improve to 7-2 on the year.

WEEKLY UPSET GAME #3: Dallas 7-1 @ New York Giants 6-2

This is a record week in NAPC! history. I have not one, not two, but THREE upset game selections this week. It is a bold move, I know, but I have faith in each of these picks. The Giants have really stepped it up since losing to Dallas in Week One, turning into an entirely different team on the defensive side of the ball. Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress have become a great tandem, the one chucking the ball to the other, and the other waltzing into the endzone. The Giants have been on a bye since their adventure in London, where they knocked off the Miami Dolphins (who hasn’t?) 13-10. You can bet they have had this game penciled in red on their calendars since that Week One loss. As for Dallas, well, Tony Romo is an idiot. The whole Hollywood/Celebrity gossip crew is apparently saying that he is getting involved with either Jessica Simpson or Britney Spears, leaving Carrie Underwood out to dry. Well, that is great news for the rest of us guys. Hey Carrie, listen, if you need someone to talk to, dial 867-5309, okay? That’s my number. (Seriously, if you need someone to talk to, PM RingLeader) Keep making smart decisions like that Romo, and let us just see where you end up. That said, I have been enjoying watching Tony play this year. He has made some incredible plays, but my favorite is probably the run for a first down on third down against St. Louis when the snap was sent flying forty yards behind the line of scrimmage. This should be a great game, but I have a feeling the Giants pull it out, making the NFC East divisional race very tight.

Chicago 3-5 @ Oakland 2-6

Remember when Brian Griese was going to turn the Bears around? Me either. Remember when LaMont Jordan was having a career resurgence? Me either. Remember when the Raiders had a passing attack better than a Pop Warner team? Me either. Remember when Kyle Orton won all those games for the Bears at QB? Me either, but they might want to be looking at him. Remember when the Bears had a good defense? Me either. Remember when Muhsin Muhammad was a receiving threat? Me either. Remember when the Raiders were in the Super Bowl last? Me either. Well, actually, I do remember these things, but that is not the point. The point is that if these two teams continue like this, they will be picking in the top ten of the draft next year. Chicago is perhaps the biggest surprise, but now we see the impact Ron Rivera really had on that defense. However, that D is still good enough to slow down the Raiders’ non-existent offense. Bears take one on the road this week and improve to four wins on the year.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Indianapolis 7-1 @ San Diego 4-4

No, sorry, no fourth upset game this week. Indianapolis gave New England an extremely tough battle last week, but in the end Peyton Manning gift-wrapped the victory to the Patriots and hand-delivered it to Rosevelt Colvin. Harshly put, I know, but no sugar-coating coming from me. The Patriots took the field, marched down, scored the points they needed, and then prevented Manning from doing anything about it. It was a hard-fought game on both sides. Nevertheless, the Colts have to move on to the Bolts this week, as they travel to San Diego. San Diego is 4-4 and somewhat of an enigma. One week they show up, the next, Adrian Peterson treats them like he would a high school defense. Or Duke’s. Not the mayonnaise, the college team. I believe Marvin Harrison is expected to return this week, and the Colts sure could use him since rookie first round draft pick Anthony Gonzalez is out with a hand ailment. The Colts (in particular Peyton Manning) hope to get left tackle Tony Ugoh back this week, and I would too, with Shawne Merriman lining up across from me. Philip Rivers needs to start playing better, and if I were maybe a little more sentimental I might pick the Chargers this week, but I will take Indy to win on the road.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: San Francisco 2-6 @ Seattle 4-4

Well, despite appearances to the contrary, the NFC West is still a mediocre division. Seattle is leading it but has lost three of their last four games. Nobody wants to win this division. Or maybe they do, they just do not have the ability to. Someone from this division, fair or unfair, will be in the playoffs whilst a better team in the NFC sits at home because they play in a tougher division. I do not have much to say about these teams. The 49ers have no offense. It just does not exist. They need a wide receiver, and they need an offensive coordinator that knows his stuff. That might help somewhat. I wonder, if the offseason were re-done, would the 49ers still have offered that contract to Nate Clements? Shaun Alexander is averaging a mere 3.3 yards rushing on the season for the Seahawks and has scored only twice. Matt Hasselbeck has lost to the 49ers only twice, and that will hold true after this week, as well. Seahawks win it.

By Robert “RingLeader” Gilbert

Last week I went 8-5 and am 84-49 on the season.

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