Nuclear Boom Within Our Developing World

TONY EASTLEY: The soaring price of oil is helping to drive a revival of interest in nuclear power.

United Nations officials have told the Washington Post that at least 40 developing countries have signalled their intention to develop nuclear power programs.

More than a quarter of them are in the Middle East.

Ashley Hall reports.

ASHLEY HALL: The massive fire at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in 1986 spread radioactive contamination as far as continental Europe and stifled demand for the commercial development of nuclear power plants for nearly 20 years.

But in the past few years, the number of countries openly pursuing nuclear power has surged.

The Director of Operations and Capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Dr Andrew Davies says the soaring cost of fossil fuels is partly to blame

ANDREW DAVIES: When Australia had a look at nuclear power a couple of years ago when the Howard government did a report, it didn't add up economically. The cost of fossil fuel generated electricity was about $35 per megawatt and from nuclear power it was about $52 so that didn't add up.

But as fossil fuels become more expensive, the balance starts to tip the other way.

ASHLEY HALL: At least 11 of the 40 countries starting or expanding their nuclear programs are within the Middle East, among them Kuwait, Saudia Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Each of them has abundant reserves of oil and gas, so some nuclear proliferation experts are worried that their nuclear plans may be focused more on Iran's nuclear ambitions than they are on generating domestic electricity.

ANDREW DAVIES: Whenever a country goes down the path of acquiring the technologies required for nuclear weapons, the countries around it sit up and take notice but Iran is certainly well down that path. The intelligence estimate that came out in the US last year said that Iran has the technology, the engineering and the industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons.

ASHLEY HALL: Eliza Matthews is a PhD candidate in history at the University of Queensland, and a specialist in nuclear proliferation.

She argues nations pursue nuclear power as a matter of prestige.

And she warns that it's a thin line dividing a nuclear power program from a nuclear weapons program.

ELIZA MATTHEWS: Depending on the size of the power plant, they can develop more than enough uranium weapons grade material to develop one bomb a year in the future if they so desire.

Now this isn't an immediate step. It does take quite some time to make that step but it actually starts to allow you to build up a stockpile of weapons grade material.

ASHLEY HALL: The nuclear non-proliferation treaty has operated since 1970, but Eliza Matthews says it's failed to stifle the nuclear ambitions of some countries, because it split the world in two - one exclusive club including the existing nuclear states with everyone else left outside.

And she says the treaty doesn't stop signatories from developing nuclear power plants - just weapons.

ELIZA MATTHEWS: Historically, you see countries, you see India, Pakistan and Israel all say strongly initially that they were developing nuclear power purely for peaceful purposes and of course all three went on to develop nuclear weapons and none of them have signed the non-proliferation treaty.

So there are examples in the past of where countries have claimed that they were developing nuclear weapons for peaceful purposes but then gone on to develop nuclear weapons.

So, of course, that is of great concern to people watching proliferation issues around the world today.


http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2243105.htm